Holding Them at Bay
Middle East dictators understand one thing very well.
Self-survival.
Men that have literally no regard for another human being often find themselves in charge of many other human beings. Even in the West. Probably a majority, or at least a healthy minority of past U.S. presidents did not care about people. They cared only about themselves. LBJ, Clinton, and Obama come to mind immediately.
In the Middle East, it’s no different.
Reports come out this week that a big thing keeping Iran from attacking Israel is the knowledge that such an effort would compel Israel to target and kill regime leadership.
They’ve done it already, of course. A whole community of Iranian nuclear scientists sleep with the fishes today. Over many years, it is assumed that Israel has killed them. That decision and success has kept Israelis safe. (One can assume that a political “rival” like Gadi Eisenkot, he of the recently formed Yasher Party, who advocates a two-state solution in the wake of 10/7, is not a serious threat to Netanyahu in October’s elections.)
But while the U.S. and Iran continue their sophomoric war (American strategy, frankly, is embarrassing and inconsistent), Iran hopes Israel sits this one out, because if the regional superpower does get involved, more Iranian leadership will die. From The Jerusalem Post:
“Iran is avoiding a broad, direct attack on Israel because it fears Israeli strikes on senior regime figures and institutions vital to its survival, Iran researcher Beni Sabti told 103FM on Sunday.
“’The strength of the public lies in Tehran, as we saw during the protests, and that is what Iran fears,’ Sabti said, explaining Iran’s concern over a possible Israeli attack.
“’The Iranian regime fears our involvement because they know that we are going straight to the center. We are targeting the most important part and focusing on senior officials.
“’They crossed a threshold on Sunday. There may be elements within the Revolutionary Guards that are beginning to pick at us and provoke us, testing how far they can go in angering Israel, and woe to them. There are always rogue elements within rogue elements. It has become like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Let me be clear: Iran has shifted into terror organization mode.’”
Indeed, Iran fears Israel. While Trump continues to make his threats that are now treated as a joke, Israel remains a lethal threat to the mullahs in Tehran. One of the Israeli specials is targeting individuals. Even now, the Mossad and elite counter-terrorism units operate deeply into Iran. Iran knows this but can’t stop it. That quite incredible.
I should say, the U.S. has recently taken down 116 communications towers, no small impact.
As always, many critical issues swirl together at the same time. Israeli elections, American elections, the war, and the knowledge that the clock is ticking on the Trump administration (2028). Given man’s ability to make the dumbest choice at the worst possible moment, it’s unclear if the American-Israeli coalition will remain intact long enough to finish the job.
The world is watching, and waiting.
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