Appearing on Fox News Sunday, House Speaker Mike Johnson argued that pollsters are using faulty analysis and systematically undercounting Republican voters. He cited historical polling errors and said Republicans are turning out enthusiastically at campaign events across the country. Johnson may have a point about polling methodology, but does the movement in the numbers support his optimism?
With Election Day one week away, this next-to-last installment of our Watch the Trend series examines whether the trend in the polls supports a growing, shrinking, or holding steady Democratic advantage. The numbers offer some interesting clues, particularly when compared with our late-September baseline.
RealClearPolling’s latest congressional generic ballot average has Democrats leading Republicans 51.1%-42.8%, an 8.3-point advantage. That’s slightly wider than last week’s 7.9 points, but narrower than our original September baseline of 8.7. Individual pollsters tell different stories. Rasmussen’s Democratic advantage moved from three points in late September to five in early October and four in its latest survey. Economist/YouGov narrowed from 15 points in late September to seven in its October 19-20 survey. Morning Consult remains steady at seven points. Reuters/Ipsos, however, widened from seven points in early October to 12 points in its latest survey.
The broader picture shows a persistent Democratic advantage rather than a decisive Republican comeback. Remember, we are not looking at the specific polling data, but the overall trends.
Johnson’s argument deserves examination. Pew Research Center has documented partisan nonresponse bias, where Republicans participate in surveys at lower rates than Democrats, contributing to polling errors. Johnson cited CNN reporting that 14 of the last 16 October election polls underestimated Republican support by an average of four points.
Historical polling errors are legitimate concerns, but they are hardly guarantees of future results. Pollsters have adjusted their weighting and sampling methods, with varying success. Meanwhile, our previous research found Democrats holding a 17-point advantage in voter enthusiasm, according to Pew. That enthusiasm gap could prove consequential. The real question is whether Republican voters will turn out in numbers sufficient to overcome the projected Democratic advantage.
Our September baseline showed Democrats ahead by 8.7 points. Today that advantage stands at 8.3. After nearly a month of tracking, the overall movement amounts to just four-tenths of a point. Some individual polls favor Johnson’s argument, while others suggest Democrats are strengthening.
The congressional generic ballot measures national sentiment, while control of Congress will be determined district by district. Polling errors, independent voters, and actual turnout could change the outcome. Johnson is betting on Republican enthusiasm that the polls may be missing. Democrats are counting on their measurable advantage. And what about the issues? The voters will settle the argument.
Jesus said in Matthew 7:20, “Therefore by their fruits you will know them.”
Watch the movement. Watch the trend. And vote.
Christian News | The Daily Jot
Sources
– Breitbart, Speaker Johnson on Fox News Sunday, October 25, 2026
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/10/25/theyre-using-faulty-analysis-speaker-johnson-insists-poll-are-wrong/
– RealClearPolling, 2026 Generic Congressional Vote
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote
– Pew Research Center, Democratic Voters More Engaged in Midterms, October 8, 2026
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/10/08/with-americans-in-a-sour-mood-democratic-voters-are-more-engaged-in-midterms/
– Pew Research Center, Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past Vote
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026/09/16/weighting-polls-on-party-affiliation-and-past-vote/
The post Are the Polls Wrong? Watch the Trend :: By Bill Wilson appeared first on Rapture Ready.
Leave a Reply